In the closing laps of the NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Aric Almirola was trying to take fourth position away from Austin Hill, ultimately making some contact with the Richard Childress Racing driver.

Hill managed to save the car, but he then appeared to abruptly turn back down the track, hooking Almirola’s Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota directly into the outside wall. Almirola impacted a section of the wall that is not protected by SAFER Barrier nearly head-on, but thankfully walked away without injury.

NASCAR held Hill for five laps for “reckless driving,” and he was furious over the radio. Hill denied that the move was intentional, claiming he was still trying to gather up the car. He also threw several expletives at the sanctioning body, which certainly didn’t help his case.

Will Hill be suspended?

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But what exactly might happen next? NASCAR has a few options, but recent history has set a precedent that incidents like this (intentional right-rear hooks at high-speed tracks) usually only end one way — a one-week suspension for the driver.

NASCAR chose to suspend Bubba Wallace in 2022 and Chase Elliott in 2023 for similar incidents. However, they also chose not to suspend Austin Cindric for right-hooking Ty Dillon at COTA earlier this year. He was docked 50 points and fined $50,000 instead. There were two main components in this decision: The incident did not result in a caution, nor was the damage significant due to the low rate of speed.

Neither of these factors exist in the Hill/Almirola run-in, which does not bode well for Hill. But there is something else to consider…

The new playoff waiver rules

Austin Hill, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

Photo by: James Gilbert / Getty Images

In 2025, a suspension would be even more impactful due to new playoff waiver rules implemented ahead of the new season. Should a driver miss a race due to a suspension, they can remain eligible for the playoffs via a waiver, but will lose all of their playoff bonus points and forfeit any future playoff points they collect leading up to the playoffs.

All signs seem to point to a one-week suspension for Hill, but the new playoff waiver rules could sway them towards a points penalty and a fine. However, the incident looks plenty severe enough to warrant a forced vacation, regardless of the new waiver policy. His radio communication may also play a factor, as NASCAR does not tolerate being spoken to in such a way. Kyle Busch once decided to flip off a NASCAR official while serving a penalty he disagreed with, which resulted in additional in-race penalties for unsportsmanlike behavior.

Hill is already locked into the NASCAR Xfinity playoffs via three race wins, and he currently holds 21 playoff points. He’s also fifth in the regular season standings, which brings with it more bonus points once the playoffs begin. But no matter what decision NASCAR makes this week, taking no action is extremely unlikely, and the punishment is likely to adversely impact his title hopes in some form.