A senior Conservative fears Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could make huge gains in May’s local elections and the age of “two party politics” may be over.
Former Tory chairman Sir Brandon Lewis issued a warning to Conservative colleagues after a series of polls suggested his party is currently in a three-way tie with Reform and Labour, as all three parties have roughly equal levels of support from the public.
He said Labour had suffered a series of “own-goals” since coming to power but said Conservatives led by Kemi Badenoch “don’t have long” to convince voters that they, rather than Reform, are the party with “a serious and tangible offering” for an alternative Government.
Sir Brandon said: “Regional elections are being held in May, when voters decide who governs us locally. They are likely to be difficult for all mainstream parties. As disrupters, Reform could make huge gains and cause big losses, even in places where they do not win outright.
“That’s why I believe parties of all colours face one of the most challenging years ahead. No sensible politician can afford to ignore Reform or its supporters. There is a very real possibility that we are seeing the beginning of the end of the two-party system in the UK.”
Sir Brandon was party chair while Theresa May was Prime Minister and served as Northern Ireland Secretary in Boris Johnson’s government. He stood down as an MP last year after 14 years in Parliament.
Calling for Conservatives to rebuild trust with “traditional” Tory policies, he said: “Conservatives need to find a way to reconnect with voters by pursing policies that are true to traditional values of low taxes and small government and building credibility around delivery. Doing this is the only way to win back hard-earned trust, however gigantic a task that may seem.”
Elections on May 1 may be challenging for the Tories because voting takes place in a limited number of authorities, mainly county councils where Tories are already the largest party. Many Labour-dominated authorities will not hold elections until 2026.
It means that if Reform does make gains then these will appear to come at the expense of the Conservatives.
Elections also take place this year for four regional mayors representing Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, West of England, Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire.
Reform is playing down expectations for May but hopes to make breakthroughs in next year’s elections for the Welsh assembly, where polls suggest it could become the largest party, and the Scottish Parliament, where insiders believe they could come second behind Labour in a blow to the Tories.
A poll by Techne UK found 25% of voters would back Labour if an election was held tomorrow, with Conservatives and Reform on 24% each.
Another by Find Out Now had reform in the lead on 26%, Conservatives on 23% and Labour on 22%.
Ms Badenoch made it clear in interviews over the weekend that she would not be spooked by polling, saying it would take time to recover from last year’s “historic” general election defeat but dismissing Reform as a “protest” vote. She said: “We’ve never had a defeat as bad as this. The idea that six months later the public would be rushing back to us is for the birds.
“What’s happening is that they’ve just kicked out one party, the party that they voted for is letting them down, so the protest vote gets the support.”
